Secession: Who WILL Be First?

August 25, 2012

by Russell D. Longcore

I’ve been pondering a lot lately about which state it will be that will be the first to secede from the United States of America. For today, let me muse about Texas and Montana.

Texas has a vibrant secessionist organization called the Texas Nationalist Movement. Run by dynamic President Daniel Miller and charismatic Membership Director Cary Wise, they have spread the concept of Texas Independence far and wide in the Lone Star state. The TNM is by far the most well-operated and organized independence movement in the nation, and has touched more lives with the message of regaining personal liberty and nationhood than any other group in North America.

To my knowledge, Montana has no organized secessionist or independence group. So…you may ask…why pick Montana as a potential secession candidate?

Much has been written about The American Redoubt, a Western liberty “reservation” modeled roughly after Galt’s Gulch of the book Atlas Shrugged. The Redoubt could work but it would work best as a new North American nation, not simply a do-over of American government and American culture.

So let’s look at some informal observations about each state.

Distance From DC

Montana is about 1,800 miles from DC. Texas is about 1,500 away from DC. So no clear advantage there. Both are in the West.


Texas has 26,400,000 people that can be counted…probably a lot more. Montana has 998,000. Texas has a long border with Mexico, and lots of illegals enter Texas across that border. Montana has a 500 mile-long border with Canada, and I would guess there are not a lot of naughty Canadians sneaking across the border so they can be Americans.

So, if 25% of Montana’s population became secession supporters, that would be about 250,000 people. If 25% of Texans got religion about secession, that would be 6.6 million. That means that about 20 million people in Texas would remain undecided or unsupportive of secession. My gut tells me that selling secession in Montana would be a lot easier to do.


Texans have lots of attitude about their state. Everything’s better and bigger in Texas. The state was born of secession from Mexico, and that victory is still very important to the heritage and pride of Texans. But in a state of over 26 million people, there are lots of non-Texans who don’t share that Texas spirit.

Montanans have attitude also, and much of that attitude is found in the phrase “leave me alone.” That should not be confused with unfriendliness. I dare you to find a Montanan who is not friendly. The Montanans I’ve met are Montanans first, then US citizens second. They are fiercely independent and most would be willing to fight for their liberty.


Texas has a shoreline on the Gulf of Mexico with many ports and an international border with Mexico. Montana is landlocked, with its northern border an international border with Canada.


Liveability simply means that when the American economy collapses, where will it be easier to survive?

Texas has about any kind of terrain you could ask for. The piney woods of east Texas, the flatlands of the Panhandle, the hill country of SW Texas, the low country and shoreline of the Coast all have their charm. Texas has a nearly year-round growing season. However, Texas does not have the fresh water resources of Montana. Thank God for the big aquifers like the Edwards. The Texas economy is a growing and thriving. And don’t forget about its petroleum and natural gas resources. Texas will have no problem whatsoever existing successfully as a nation after secession.

Montana has the spectacular beauty of the Rocky Mountains, rolling plains, hills and valleys, even glaciers. The growing season in Montana is short, beginning in late spring and ending in early fall. But there is plenty of fresh water. They do not have the petro resources of Texas, and would have to import most of their needs.

Texas’ year-round climate is much more survivable than Montana’s climate. If you had to live in a tent in February, where would you rather be, Kalispell or San Antonio?

Federal Land

Montana has 30% of its land mass in Federal ownership. In 2011, the legislature considered SB254, which would have given Montana the authority to use eminent domain to take back federal land. The bill went nowhere.

Texas has only 1.9% of its land in Federal hands. Look at to see who owns the West.

So, it looks like it would be a lot easier to throw the Federal government out of Texas than Montana. But wait a minute.

Military Bases

Texas has 15 military bases on its soil. Montana has one small Air Force base. So, if DC wants to play rough in a secession scenario, Montana may have an advantage.

I am sure that there are other criteria that you can suggest that give one or the other an advantage in secession. But at this time, I still believe that Texas has the best chance of being the first state to secede from the United States of America.

Next time, we will look at Alaska and Hawaii.

Secession is the hope for humanity. Who will be first?

DumpDC. Six Letters That Can Change History.

© Copyright 2012, Russell D. Longcore. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.