Why Secession is the only solution for Liberty
By Russell D. Longcore
I have a fellow traveler on the Liberty Road named Kerodin. He blogs very thoughtfully at Memento Mori and Three Percent Patriots. Recently he wrote about secession and Balkanization and that got my attention.
What is a “Three Percent Patriot”?
(from Sipsey Street Irregulars)
”During the American Revolution, the active forces in the field against the King’s tyranny never amounted to more than 3% of the colonists. They were in turn actively supported by perhaps 10% of the population. In addition to these revolutionaries were perhaps another 20% who favored their cause but did little or nothing to support it. Another one-third of the population sided with the King (by the end of the war there were actually more Americans fighting FOR the King than there were in the field against him) and the final third took no side, blew with the wind and took what came.
Three Percenters today do not claim that we represent 3% of the American people, although we might. That theory has not yet been tested. We DO claim that we represent at least 3% of American gun owners, which is still a healthy number somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million people. History, for good or ill, is made by determined minorities. We are one such minority. So too are the current enemies of the Founders’ Republic. What remains, then, is the test of will and skill to determine who shall shape the future of our nation.
The Three Percent today are gun owners who will not disarm, will not compromise and will no longer back up at the passage of the next gun control act. Three Percenters say quite explicitly that we will not obey any further circumscription of our traditional liberties and will defend ourselves if attacked. We intend to maintain our God-given Unalienable Rights to liberty and property, and that means most especially the right to keep and bear arms. Thus, we are committed to the restoration of the Founders’ Republic, and are willing to fight, die and, if forced by any would-be oppressor, to kill in the defense of ourselves and the Constitution that we all took an oath to uphold against enemies foreign and domestic.
We are the people that the collectivists who now control the government should leave alone if they wish to continue unfettered oxygen consumption. We are the Three Percent. Attempt to further oppress us at your peril. To put it bluntly, leave us the hell alone. Or, if you feel froggy, go ahead AND WATCH WHAT HAPPENS.”
Ok, dear readers. Got the context? Kerodin is a fan of restoration of the USA. Kerodin’s post was about the “Balkanization” of CONUS (which is the CONtinental US). He’s against it. So am I. However, secession is not Balkanization. Let’s explore this idea.
Definitions always come first with me, so we all know that we’re using the same terms and not talking past each other.
“Balkanization:” (from Wikipedia) A geopolitical term, originally used to describe the process of fragmentation or division of a region or state into smaller regions or states that are often hostile or non-cooperative with each other, and it is considered pejorative… The term refers to the division of the Balkan peninsula, formerly ruled almost entirely by the Ottoman Empire, into a number of smaller states between 1817 and 1912…The term is used to describe…disintegration.
What is happening NOW in America is Balkanization. States are already often hostile and un-cooperative with each other. Washington does not create a climate of cooperation between the states. The present political system is a system of spoils, pitting each state against each other for the Federal largesse. When a Congressman or Senator “brings home the bacon,” they are judged by whether or not they can wheedle more money coming back to their state than the state sent to DC. That is considered success in the Balkanized America of 2011.
Secession will not happen before economic collapse. There is not one statehouse in America that is a hotbed of secessionist thought. You cannot find one state that is even contemplating something as simple as collecting their state taxes in silver and gold, or re-vitalizing a state militia. Sure…you’ll find dozens of states that have passed resolutions against national IDs, or other weak-kneed, limp-dicked resolutions. But there is no state of the fifty where radical liberty is being even considered.
But wait until the US economy collapses, followed by the economies of the rest of the world. All politics will become local again. Only AFTER economic collapse will local and state governments begin to consider secession. I contend that widespread economic devastation, disease and death will almost force some states to launch out to seek their own fortunes without Washington.
So before we start arguing over the color of the drapes in this house, we must go down into the cellar and determine if the foundation for the house can support it.
It is inevitable that the United States of America will collapse as a political entity. The government in Washington is entirely out of control, spending wildly, taxing voraciously, making war indiscriminately, borrowing profligately and destroying the national money supply. In the population of the USA there is discontent but no national mission to repair Washington. Why? There are too many people on the public dole. And DC’s power base will never place itself under anyone’s control again. So fragmentation and dis-integration is unavoidable.
Let’s go back to the First War of Secession in 1776. Thirteen colonies of Great Britain fought and won a war (the Three Percent) so that they could become thirteen sovereign nations. They did not fight to become just another nation with thirteen big counties. The Articles of Confederation were a loosely organized management agreement between sovereigns, something short of a treaty. But men who wanted a stronger central government met in Constitutional Convention and drafted a new Constitution. Most of the men who signed the Declaration of Independence did not sign the Constitution. Thomas Paine hated the new Constitution. Patrick Henry would not sign it either.
But the Constitution is not a contract, nor is it a treaty, nor is it a legal document. It is a pact between the people alive at the time it was drafted and ratified. The Constitution has no force of law to bind any two people to it or to each other. The parties did not sign it…you did not sign it…I did not sign it.
To learn all you need to know about the US Constitution in about 40 pages, go to: Lysander Spooner
There is no foundation whatsoever for a United States of America as presently configured. CONUS should have sovereign nations from sea to shining sea. So I cannot enter into a discussion about restoring America when it should not even exist in its present form.
Kerodin only posted a few sentences. So I will show each sentence and my response following. I will challenge Kerodin’s preconceptions and world view, and hopefully yours also.
There are many who anticipate a Balkanization of CONUS. I anticipate the collapse of the Washington government. But that does not automatically translate into a Balkanization. I believe that most American states will stay in the Union, awaiting their orders from their next set of masters.
For some it is a Strategy for defeating the republic. Smaller pieces of a pie are easier to eat. I know of no one who proffers the idea of “balkanization” to defeat the republic. I’m not even sure why Kerodin wrote this. Most who wish to defeat the republic are using socialism, not the idea of breaking up the Union. And any person or group of persons who are dedicated to secession PRIOR to the economic collapse of the Washington government and the American economy are, in my opinion, providing a very valuable service by educating the American populace ABOUT secession before it occurs. For example, the Texas Nationalist Movement touches the lives of hundreds of thousands of Texans each year with the message that Texas should once again be a sovereign nation. That will not happen before collapse, but Texans will be far more prepared for liberty because of the TNM.
Some in the Patriot Community are actively seeking the same ends, through secession. The result will be the same – tyranny will win. I do not believe that tyranny will win EVERYWHERE. Once the overarching Federal Government is stripped of its power and money, there will be a fight between tyranny and liberty. Please remember what happened to the Soviet Union in 1989 and later. The USSR dissolved, and the 15 republics that comprised the USSR returned to sovereign nation status. The mighty Red Army did not crush secession. Secession won, and won big.
However, every one of those 15 nations that had seceded simply repeated the mistakes of the tyrants, just on a smaller scale. And today, every one of those nations will suffer some form of economic illness when the US Dollar collapses and ceases to be the world reserve currency. So while the concept of secession means potentially greater liberty, it can easily be hijacked and used as a tool for tyrants. Unfortunately, there is no better alternative to secession. And the Three Percenters will be more important to America than ever.
The Right to secede is one thing, and creating the circumstances in which few want to secede is a better goal (such as we had in 1791).
Kerodin is mistaken here. In 1791, there were thirteen sovereign nations on the Eastern coast of CONUS. They had just completed the overthrow of King George and secession from Great Britain a few years earlier. And in the ensuing years after the Articles of Confederation were ratified, and even after the Constitution was ratified, state secession was contemplated and threatened many times by states unhappy with Federal interference (like the Whiskey Rebellion, and the Alien and Sedition Acts).
Humans have an Unalienable Right of free association, the right to have relationships with whomever they choose. And the “right to secede” is simply another Unalienable Right…the Right to Contract. In that right you may enter into contract as well as leave a contract. Diminishing the demand for secession means increasing the supply of personal liberty and property rights. I contend that this cannot be done in a nation of over 300 million diverse souls, especially when most of those souls do not want more personal liberty and increased property rights.
Simple fact of warfare – if this nation breaks up into pieces, she’ll never be whole again and the concept of Liberty will be dead across the entire planet.
I agree that “she’ll never be whole again,” but that is the best outcome possible. I respectfully and vociferously disagree with Kerodin about Liberty. Monopolies always eventually tend toward tyranny, because competition has been suppressed. DC has a monopoly on government and a monopoly on American money. The greatest saturation of personal liberty occurs where the greatest saturation of competition exists…competition of ideas, competition of the free market, competition of money and capital…and that very level of competition always devolves down to smaller and smaller units of human effort.
Several in our community are linking to a man who spent a year in a Balkan city under siege. I’m linking him as well, and already added his site to the blog roll. At the moment his site is still new, so reading through it from the beginning is easy, and I commend it to you. Consider what is offered, keep what works for you, discard the rest. Here is his first post.
Kerodin, I realize that this happened in a Balkan city. But after the economic collapse that WILL happen in America, this will happen in EVERY American city. This is the very reason that all of us keep beating the drum for survival preparedness, PT and resistance. It is precisely because this collapse will occur, taking America back to the 18th Century in many locales, that the concept of secession will blossom like weeds in the cracks of the sidewalks. Hunger and privation tends to focus the mind. The Three Percenters will be more crucial to basic civilization than you presently imagine, and you already think they will be the vanguard of leadership on CONUS.
My friend Kerodin has some very valid concerns about our futures. I shared those same concerns about America back in the ‘90s. But I found that America’s path is away from liberty, and Washington’s path is a bullet train toward tyranny and monopoly. I discovered that the only chance that Liberty has on CONUS is through secession. Friends, stop thinking nationally. Start thinking small government. Then think smaller. That’s were Liberty will live in our futures.
Secession is the Hope for Mankind. Who will be first?
DumpDC. Six Letters That Can Change History.
© Copyright 2011, Russell D. Longcore. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
I appreciate that you cited the changes in the USSR, but keep in mind that most of those republics are still satellite states for Moscow. We could go off on a long tangent about how those who resisted have still felt the might of the renamed Russian army. Chechnya easily comes to mind for most people, but 2008 Georgia should be added to the list of armed confrontation. Other republics which most Americans can’t find on the map have a lot of internal repression which doesn’t make the news. Although the Baltic states appear as a peaceful example of autonomy on the surface, those aware of history and realpolitik know that Moscow could openly re-annex them all again in an hour or two. My point with this paragraph is a simple walk down memory lane to emphasize that the withering of the central authority doesn’t always happen like people assume it will. It still exists.
But, let’s go with the scenario of economic collapse and a complete loss of central authority which results in US states going on their own. You’re correct that some states might be better than others –some will be bastions of freedom that any of us here would appreciate living in. Others will be akin to dungeons with repressive former governors turned local warlord. Luck of the draw I guess which one you’re in. If you’re on the wrong side of the state line, hopefully you can emigrate. That opens up another possible tangent on resource depletion due to a flood of new immigrants in the new freedom states –not to mention possible attack by envious neighbors.
In any case, we’ll assume the FUSA is 50 independent states (probably less though as one governor/general/director/chairman/warlord could control blocks of former states). Now let’s recall the 500 nations which inhabited this continent before the Euro settlers arrived. This is easy for me to consider because after my ancestors were among that tiny 3% who threw out the British, they then went about taking over the land of the previous occupants from sea to shining sea. I want you to think about how each of those fiercely independent tribes were overcome by outsiders. What makes you think that wouldn’t happen here again?
That is a question you need to seriously explore.
I disagree with some of the conclusions here. First that secession will only happen once economic collapse occurs. Second that supporters of American division should sit around, pistol in hand and rifle at the ready waiting for a collapse that may not happen exactly as expected.
Secession should be started now, and not by gun carrying hot heads who wait for Wall Street to be boarded up. That isn’t going to happen, folks. The problem, as I see it, is that there isn’t any sort of organized opposition to DC with secession in mind. Oh yes, there are more than thirty states with active orgainizations, but those states also have active PTA groups and Sunday school sessions which are just about as effective.
As of this writing TSA has a presence on the highways of Tennessee and will stop any and all traffic to search and question at their whim. Here in Tampa, they already have a set up in the bus stations. In southern states that border Mexico there are a number of check points on interstate highways as much as one hundred miles north of the border. No elected official has successfully opposed the new travel restrictions and few Americans of any persuasion have raised their voices against it. Do they even know about it?
Demonstrations against TSA and their policies of groping Grandma Sally and baby Johnny need to begin now. Active infrastructure should begin to operate in favor of secession now. Peaceful demonstrations, demonstrations that embarass DC and aren’t perceived as a threat by the general population. Demonstrations that cause late night TV comedians to poke fun at DC and not the secessionists. How hard could it be? All by itself, DC is constantly stumbling over their own feet.
Where is the opposition? I see and hear none, and if a man who is looking for it can’t find it, then most citizens are completely unaware of the issue. Forget about per centages of support. There won’t be 1% if folks don’t know about it or see it going on.
So far all I’m hearing and reading is rhetoric and it’s giving me a headache. Action is needed.
What makes you think that wouldn’t happen here again?
For one thing, the Indians were Stone Age people encircled by the Age of Gunpowder. A technology gap of several thousand years probably assured their defeat, regardless of the quality of the enemy.
For another, those who conquered the Indians were, for the most part, united by a common race and shared destiny. This will certainly not be the case with modern America, where every tribe is positively encouraged to agitate for itself.
The comparison doesn’t hold very well.
[…] note, it appears DumpDC is debating Kerodin on Secession Vs. Balkanization. I decided to throw in my own comment on the topic to get people to consider some things which they often overlook: I appreciate that […]
[…] Russell Longcore: Secession versus Balkanization […]
Russell, thank you for the discussion. I agree that definitions matter tremendously, so I’ll begin there, seriatum.
III Percent Patriot: I’ll let Sipsey’s definition stand for those who subscribe to it. I’ll limit my definition to: Men like Captain John Parker and those who chose to stand with him on the Green.
The wiki definition of Balkanization works just fine.
I also agree with your point that neither secession or Balkanization will occur until there is a collapse of the economy, which is imminent.
Here is where we begin to disagree, but at the same time we are walking in the same direction, where you write: There is no foundation whatsoever for a United States of America as presently configured. CONUS should have sovereign nations from sea to shining sea. So I cannot enter into a discussion about restoring America when it should not even exist in its present form.
I think your position is that the existence of FedGov itself is offensive and indefensible, void of all legitimate and moral authority.
I take the position that I can live with FedGov if it is populated with men and women who remain within the boundaries, as ratified, (including strong States and a weaker central government) in the Constitution and BoR, while remaining true in any Amendments to the spirit of the Declaration.
If I mischaracterize your position, let me know.
Either way, we can look at the real-world ramifications if secession or Balkanization were to occur, because FedGov does exist and has a vote in the outcome.
Any Balkanization or secession would likely occur along the lines of the 2008 Presidential results of Blue/Red. This is a broadbrush generalization and there would be significant migrations of people to and from States/Regions more aligned with their Left/Right political views. Today’s borders would blur, but we can use the current borders for the purpose of this discussion.
Here’s where it gets messy, whether a voluntary secession by a State or a forced Balkanization due to collapse: The power of America is indivisibly entwined with the geography and natural resources, manufacturing and refining and farming and military potential of the entire republic.
We are only this strong today because we are united and all States work together, more or less.
Now consider a secession or Balkanization based on political ideology. The entire west coast goes Left. The entire northeast goes Left. The Great Lakes go Left. The only States with a majority population of folks who generally agree with the principles outlined in the Declaration are in the middle of the country and along the gulf coast. We may get the Carolinas and Georgia, and Florida is iffy.
In the real world of the simplistic Red/Blue or Right/Left differences, which are profound, we have a problem: Nancy Pelosi and her ilk would rather reach out for trade, protection and ideological support to China or Russia than to Texas.
That means Russia in the northeast and China on the west coast, just for starters. Look for Russia to take back Alaska within days, as predicted by Professor Panarin. And GS’s reminder that the true power center today for Eastern Europe is still Moscow is dead-on. Let’s not forget the Golitsyn factor, which suggests Russia is eager for the first signs of an American Balkanization to make a move.
Despite hopes, there would not be cooperation on most issues between the States/Regions. Remember that the Colonies fussed constantly about tolls and moving goods. Can you imagine the price of a barrel of oil today if it had to travel from an independent Texas to an independent Massachusetts, passing through the tolls of every independent nation between?
Nancy Pelosi and her Blue Block would invite Chinese or Russian boots on the ground, a move that would be intolerable to the folks in Texas and the Red Block. So, you have war.
Texans would not refine oil or gasoline for Blue States that have allied with Communists, with guns pointed at their heads. Blue Block States would not permit imports to Red Block States through the ports, most of which are located in Blue areas today. The ports of the Gulf could be closed down with a small naval force in the Caribbean. Air travel would be easily denied to the Red Block States. Without the ability to trade freely, Red Block either fights to one of the coasts, or they die by attrition of some form.
Add to this the military realities that obtain today and it gets even messier and unlikely that any hope for 50 States to work together would obtain. Just as a single point, who gets the Football? At this moment it is in Blue hands. With silos across the middle of the country loaded with missiles, consider the Governor of Nebraska receiving this call after Nebraska threatens to horde their grain harvest: Send your grain west or we detonate a missile in its silo…
There is simply no real-world way we devolve from our current global and domestic political realities into a working Balkanized existence in North America.
While I agree completely with the Right to secede, I favor a political solution that removes the desire to secede.
That can only happen by removing the Enemies of Liberty from our current USA boundaries. We can not coexist. They will never let you live peacfully in your new, smaller AoC world. They will want your oil, or your grain, or your labor, and they will always want your subjugation.
The Enemies of Liberty must be driven from the republic so the DoI, Constitution and BoR can operate as intended…then the desire to secede will probably fall off everyone’s table.
Our republic was never expected to work in the condition that obtains today, when we are infested with genuine Enemies of Liberty who constantly work to destroy freedom. Let us be rid of the (modern) Liberals, Socialist and Communists, and we can all get back to living as Free men at Liberty.
Yours in Liberty,
[…] Russell at DumpDC writes about secession, Balkanization, and the death of the former US of A. […]
“Any Balkanization or secession would likely occur along the lines of the 2008 Presidential results of Blue/Red. This is a broadbrush generalization and there would be significant migrations of people to and from States/Regions more aligned with their Left/Right political views. Today’s borders would blur, but we can use the current borders for the purpose of this discussion.”
I think the mistake that many people make is that they assume the demographics of today will be the demographics after a collapse. I believe this is a mistake. I am much more optimistic about our future (as either a United States or Confederate States).
Let’s compare the election results for my home state of Pennsylvania. in 2008, PA went solidly for the Democratic candidate as it has for the last 20 years or so. Therefore using this data PA would likely be the first to embrace Marxism and welcome Chinese and Russian troops onto our soil after a collapse…right? Of course that is laughable as PA possesses more guns than virtually any other state in the Union and such an invasion would be impossible. The citizens of this state love liberty too much.
By now you are asking: “If the citizens of PA love liberty so much why do they continue to vote for Democrats?” Two words: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. You win Philly and Pittsburgh and you are likely to win the state. Most of the rest of the state votes solid Republican.
Therein lies the rub…Who is most likely to die during the coming collapse? Is it the residents of Philadelphia who are completely dependent on the government for their every need? Who don’t know the first thing about growing food or self-defense? Who live in neighborhoods infested with gangs? Who laugh at the idea of prepping for disaster? Whose sole reason for living is to vote Democrats into power?
or.. the residents in the rest of the state who can grow their own food and know how to use firearms? Who store food and supplies for a rainy day?
My analysis is that a collapse will likely kill off 50-75% of the “inhabitants” of big cities like Philadelphia. These people will be unable to survive the starvation, disease, fires and violence that will be certain to occur. I think of it as thinning out the herd. Natural selection will kick in and eliminate those who choose to be weak. Those who chose to be dependent on the government.
The rest of the state will likely survive relatively unscathed.
In any event a reduction in population of 50-75% in the large cities will change the demographics of most states. Places like Philly and Pittsburgh will no longer be able to determine the outcome of elections. The same can be said for NYC, LA, Chicago, etc.
After the collapse the demographics of the nation will be changed to our advantage. Team liberty will no longer be on the defensive.
Just my thoughts.
Sterling A. III%
Sterling- Absolutely outstanding comments!! I hope Kerodin reads them. Russ
I agree, I have been writing about culling the herd for years.
Whether it happens as a byproduct of collapse or direct strategic intent, if America were to suddenly be rid of the 2/3 of our population who have no idea how to feed and clothe themselves, Liberty wins.
But that does not address the matter of secession – only the ugly reality that Liberty can only exist in a state where it is not constantly under attack from within and without…as we have today with 200,000,000+ who are parasitic genetic waste.
Kerodin seems to be a lover of both liberty and empire, but liberty is always strictly limited in empires. He wants the empire to hold together, because apparently if it does not, then the Russians and Chinese are going to invade. Typical fearmongering used to hold up the false god of US nationalism.
What was that Ben Franklin said about trading liberty for security?
No serious responses to my question yet?
Gardenserf, Nothing makes me think it couldn’t or wouldn’t happen here again, and, given the twists that history takes, it probably will, in some form or other. But you know the differences. Technology. Population, and their education level. There are abundant reasons, because of the differences between the situation now and then, that it won’t pan out that way. One will certainly be that it has been seen before, and might be avoided on the basis of that alone. But millions, if they live, will probably become pawns in the whole thing, and go with the prevailing wind. My take is that we will get something like Yugoslavia,1991-1995, and the American West, from 1800-1890. And that we’ll wind up with something like Austria-Hungary, 1840-1918.
Ignoring the likely Federal response (all out war) for a moment, the US is really too diverse as is to force an older style Constitutional Republic on a large swath of land.
It strikes me that without the general legitimacy you won’t get its not possible to governing the entire mass of CONUS is too much of a challenging.
The 20 million illegal Mexicans (about 2/5 of the entire male population of Mexico BTW ) , the un-assimilated and the 1 million Illegal Chinese and the assorted other illegals are not going to have a place in a new Republic and baring some pretty extreme actions, deporting them is not going to be easy.
Some will flee if things get bad but thats still a lot of manpower for any population to handle.
On top of that, as mentioned possibly 1/3 of the population is too disconnected to really participate. They have no skills that can be marketed and will not thrive in another kind of system
You can assume that all of them will be armed, many capable of fighting as hard and well (in time, not at first) and maybe just as determined,
And yes, demographic and economic collapse will thin the population. However its going to be Black wiped out and mostly older Whites along with them . The Hispanics are better prepared I suspect. After that mess I am not sure a mix of La Raza and Redneck will get along all that well.
Lastly getting there, a couple of things
Assuming others are interested in your system is the same folly that causes us to invade foreign nations again and again, a misunderstanding of what freedom is.
Freedom is simply, being governed by your own people by your own customs. Nothing more nothing less.
Our customs are not those of the Somalis, the Afghans or any of the other non European powers and unless we are willing to conquer them as we did Japan, there tribal identity remains strong and they have little interest in becoming socially like us.
The same will apply in a hypothetical break up. Just as you see the Welfare state as an imposition, so do its proponents see your governmental limits as such. What do you mean I am not allowed to redistribute wealth is just as much a freedom to them as Bill of Rights is to us.
There are a lot, possible the majority of Americans, many armed and willing to fight who do not want the kind of Republic you propose and as I mentioned see “promote the general welfare” in a different light as well.
This means its very possibly wiser to have a smaller homogeneous population who wants what you want rather than assuming the SWPL are all weak and or forcing them and the millions of illegals to live as you see fit at gunpoint and risking them doing to you what you did to them.
Thank you, Mr. Strictland. This is one of the best comments I’ve read in some time.
DumpDC and others may appreciate this discussion at VFR in April of last year.
Checking current course & speed half the population of CONUS will not be of Western descent in the near future. California is already there…and we see how that’s working out for them. Nearly every major metro is populated by FSA of two stripes: Those who want free stuff and those who steal and then give away the stuff.
Those are three massive groups of players, they outnumber Constitutionalists exponentially, and if left unchallenged they will add Constitutionalists to the extinct part of the museum, soon.
But I simply cannot accept that the best notion is to retreat into a smaller, homogeneous group on a smaller piece of real estate, yielding to those who would make us extinct, all the advantages of our retreat. When you walk away from any selection of states across the country, you abandon resources that will only be used against your new, smaller, live & let live community.
They do not want to let you live. They will come for you, again.
Maybe not you. Maybe you’ll die in relative freedom. But your children won’t.
Better to evict those who do not respect Liberty and Freedom, and let them fight for scraps in Mexico and Canada, or wherever they choose to inhabit.
It doesn’t take much to get a herd moving. It would not take a great deal of time or resources to start an exodus from CONUS of those who do not respect Liberty. We know from history that small, determined groups can change the course of the world. It is happening right now, to us.
What it does require is those who truly love Liberty to get to work, rather than watch Rome burn and wish for a safe spot in the hills.
But, the reality is that we are headed toward Secession/Balkanization by default. And you are quite right that FedGov will have a say in all this, and they will not be pleasant to Constitutionalists, either.
They win…and they don’t believe in Win/Win.
My thought on a smaller USA is not that its flight insomuch as fitting the land to the population size.
After all the US was once smaller than it is now and as much as I respect the idea of a mostly unified continent, it may be that patriots, general supporters and such simply do not need large tracts of the land that FedGov now controls.
My guess is that the patriots, families and friends who would be willing to live in the new nation are only say 40 million people, a number that sounds about right they could fit into 1/5 of this nation soundly. Heck thats about 110% the population of California. Throw in Oregon Washington, Idaho a few other states and you’ll have surplus land.
Also in making that calculus , you need to consider diverse domestic effects. Loss of material capability, technical capacity and population growth.
Think of the kind of people who will live there, mostly older White traditionalists and their families with smattering of others.
This alters assumptions a lot, it lowers birth rates, skews away from some high tech fields (you’ll have fewer bio-tech and computer tech people than you’ll want) and in essence lowers the tech at hand.
Any assumption that assume women are going to start popping out kids at a clip are pretty dubious and you can’t make assumptions based on that kind of hoped for demography either.
Heck, New America or whatever its going to be called might not even have a large female population, women like FedGovs system and that is going to have measurable effects on its makeup for a long long time.
Also a lot of geeks that keep modernity alive are city kids and Internet Libertarians. It will take a heck of a lot to persuade them to join the society you want to build.
Now there are upsides, the dysgenic persons ration will be a lot higher in FedGov and they’ll have to either pay or deal with them but thats leads us into another area.
Its easier to keep a smaller area than a large one
Understand that if SHTF defense planning is going to be a nightmare. Patriots face a range of threats and that can’t tell immediate from real and imagined much better than FedGov can.
Threats could be anything from an expeditionary force of displaced minorities, Mexican invasion , to terrorism, a cold war, WMD’s, resource wars, military action , sabotage ,anything.
Controlling “just enough” land allows better control and management which as contrary to the ideas of a Republic it is are going to be essential. Enemies foreign and domestic as it were.
As a bonus, it might be possible to get a succession. If FedGov is weakened enough, it may have to do what the Soviets did and let people go.
How this will be done is not hard, the make up is another matter. 3 nations, 20? 11? who knows?
A last point, the numbers game. Unless the patriots can develop some serious force multipliers its essential not to overreach. Its not a kind of war that can be won with heroism in the field . You can ask the Confederates how that turned out. Its won either on defense (by making the opposition pay to much to win) taking only what you can (slow and sure) or by unleashing all the power of modern technology at hand and well, you use your imagination what will happen there.Let is say, that has never happened yet and pray that it never does.
One must also take into account the enemy’s demographics and philosophy. Just as the enemy values contradictory “rights,” its makeup is actually a mishmash of special interest groups and grievance lobbies that are only united by their hatred of what they see as conservatism. Remove this object of hatred from the equation, and they’re going to have a helluva time not tearing into each other like hyenas. It’s an open secret that Mexicans aren’t big fans of blacks, and vice versa.
And if you insist on preserving the Union, what is to be done with 200 million hostile people? Will we push them all into Mexico and Canada? Those two countries will quickly clamp down on the flow of refugees, especially the former. Then you’ve got a whole new problem to deal with; they will be the guerrillas.
Since the two countries will be on opposite sides of the philosophical spectrum, does it not follow that undesirables will avoid the new state in favor of the old one? I seriously doubt that successful secession will cure the US of its addiction to welfare and promises of free cash for all.
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