The Fiat Dollar & Debt Democracy Experiments Have Failed

August 4, 2011

by Ron Holland

Washington claims the federal debt limit extension and the threat of default is postponed. This is just more political theatre as the Treasury debt downgrade will happen and eventually a bankrupt America will attempt to inflate the debt away and default. It is the same across the Atlantic where the sovereign debt crisis still stalks the politicians in the EU.

The political and economic reality of the sordid situation cannot be covered up by the establishment news hacks or by more lies or the blame game by either party. The Washington experiment of borrowing trillions to buy elections today to be paid for by future generations has failed in the US and across Europe.

America’s Ability To Service Our Sovereign Debt Is Ending

The real dollar and debt crisis is being obscured here in the US by the political theatre in Washington. Of course the debt limit increase was passed yesterday by a vote of 269-161 and now we can look forward to the first of many downgrades and any purported balanced budget amendment will not be worth the paper it is printed on.

All the false conventional media propaganda and Congressional actions were designed only to help the politicians and institutions responsible for the coming debt debacle avoid the blame. They are now attempting to transfer their responsibility to the only innocent Washington politicians, the Tea Party caucus. They will succeed and at the same time build the case for dramatic future revenue (tax increases).

The Dollar Death Throes Are Hidden From Most Americans

The fiat dollar is collapsing and as a writer and editor paid monthly in Swiss francs, looking at the last year of exchange rates will show the real situation not apparent to Americans living inside the Washington dollar iron curtain.

About 12 months ago, a thousand Swiss francs equaled about USD$870.00. Today, the same CHF 1,000 equals USD$1,270.00. This means the dollar has fallen nearly 46% compared to the rising value of the Swiss franc and conversely my monthly retainer has increased almost 50 percent in dollars per thousand of CHF. Unless you are being paid in dollars and reside outside the US or are paid in a foreign currency and live in America, the bloodbath in the dollar is not apparent in the near term – but it is real and ongoing.

Yes, to my knowledge, the Swiss franc is the best example of the performance of a major currency versus the United States dollar but many other currencies have done very well when compared to the dying dollar as well. Going back to 2001, CHF 1,000 equaled USD$550.00 so here you can see the short and long-term trend of the Swiss franc versus the dollar.

Debt Democracy Has Also Failed!

Today, on the democracy front, Greece, the historic birthplace of democracy around 508 BC and America – the witch’s caldron which spawned the failed debt-financed regulatory democracy experiment – are now competing to see whether it’ll be Athens’ or Washington’s politicians who will be more despised. I believe the US will win the race to the bottom only because Greek politicians have only subjected Greece and several wealthy EU countries like Germany to their wealth thievery, while the failed American example of democracy financed by sovereign debt is bankrupting the US and all of EU Europe.

My Bet & Ten Year Dollar Forecast

The goal of Washington and the FED is to create high inflation and eventually default during a future foreign policy or financial crisis so the blame for the dollar’s demise and debt problems can be transferred elsewhere. Although I doubt they can pull off this PONZI scheme, the only real solutions to the American debt crisis are either repudiation, which would benefit the people, or hyperinflation designed to benefit the bankers and political class.

Thanks to the fake debt deal, in the meantime the government will pass legislation and end deductions in order to increase government revenue. Americans will certainly lose beneficial capital gains treatment and any tax benefits on home profits. The coming hyperinflation will likely cause real estate values in depreciating dollars to go up. We could see housing prices rebound and maybe double back to 2007 pre-bubble levels, which will be touted by the political establishment as good economic news at last. The problem will be the inflated dollars will have lost substantial purchasing power.

You’ll be taxed at high rates on the false inflationary gains of your home, as the accompanying salary increases – due to inflation – will force you into the highest income tax levels with no deductions. The average American will finally realize how badly they will have been scammed when they decide to sell their real estate and – after paying taxes with inflated dollars – decide to purchase the least expensive new Kia or Corolla and the import car is priced at $120,000. This is an example of how countries subjected to hyperinflation are eventually priced out of buying most foreign imports from cars, electronics and beer to name just a few important products of interest to me.

The Fiat Dollar Problem Will Eventually Be Solved By Currency Competition

The profit opportunities for smart international investors from a dollar collapse will likely be enormous due to a paradigm shift in political, economic and monetary theory away from sovereign debt-financed democracy and fiat currency. The monetary elites will attempt to create a fake gold and commodity resource standard to back formerly fiat currencies in order to build “currency confidence” in the US and Europe.

Initially, this may well translate into gold and resource backed currencies and, after the fake elite money standard fails, maybe to the Austrian economc ideal of public and private currency competition. Gold and silver, as well as mining and natural resource equities in certain mineral and oil rich countries, will benefit from the fake gold and resource standard as well as the future ultimate solution of currency competition.

I will have more on this in a future report and in a new editorial on “The Failure of Greece.” We live in an interesting time of transition from debt-democracy and fiat-currency. Take action to avoid the downside in dollars and benefit from rising gold and natural resource prices.

$50.00 Imported Beer?

In the meantime, I hope I’m wrong regarding my expectations for the dollar and debt democracy. But if I’m right, sometime over the next ten years, I’ll buy the first 10 of you who remind me of this editorial and my dollar forecast the foreign beer of your choice at my expense. After all, what is $50 per beer among friends?

© Copyright 2008 – 2011 The Daily Bell. All Rights Reserved.


Deception and Debt Ceilings: Spend Now, Cut Never

August 3, 2011

Important Debt Ceiling Update

courtesy National Inflation Association

(Editor’s Note: This voodoo dance in DC should cement in your mind that the DC criminals cannot repair the damage they caused and continue to cause. Don’t miss the point that the Republicans caved in and are helping to destroy the USA. Get your houses in order, dear readers. The shyt is going to hit the fan much sooner than we previously thought.)

President Obama just announced late this evening (Monday) that a deal has been reached to cut government spending and raise the debt ceiling in order to avoid a debt default. If the deal is approved on Monday, it will raise the debt ceiling by between $2.1 and $2.4 trillion in three installments: $400 billion immediately, $500 billion this fall subject to a disapproval vote by Congress, and $1.2 to $1.5 trillion more after a special committee agrees on a matching amount of spending cuts that will be in addition to $900 billion in spending cuts proposed in the bill. With no tax increases included in this plan, all of this additional debt will eventually be monetized and paid for through monetary inflation.

Although the deal is supposed to cut as much as $2.4 trillion in spending over the next decade, Obama said that none of the spending cuts will occur anytime soon so that not to derail the phony economic recovery. That’s right, none of the cuts will come until early 2013 and by then we will need to once again raise the debt ceiling to north of $20 trillion. If our elected representatives were serious about cutting spending, they would have the bulk of the spending cuts now and not in the future when many of them will be out of office.

This deal is a complete and total sham, and will do nothing to prevent hyperinflation. In no way will these spending cuts be mandated and nothing will force future Congresses to abide by them. Even with these cuts, government spending is going to increase every single year for the next decade. As price inflation spirals out of control in the years ahead causing the purchasing power of the dollar to plummet, all government employees will demand higher salaries and it will cost more to run all parts of the government. Future Congresses will raise spending and make the spending cuts proposed in this deal meaningless.

NIA believes that all of the events that took place in Washington this weekend were scripted in advance. It is likely that both parties knew from the beginning what deal they would ultimately agree to, but came out with these other proposed bills in order to satisfy tea party supporters and make them think that their efforts are making a difference. The reality is, although the tea party movement helped Republicans take over the House of Representatives so that Democrats didn’t have free rein in Washington, most of the new Republicans elected to Congress haven’t followed through with their promises and have failed to make any kind of a positive difference.

Everybody in Washington assumes that interest rates will remain at artificially low levels for the rest of this decade. The interest rate that the U.S. paid on its total marketable debt in the month of June was only 2.38%. Exactly one decade earlier, in June of 2001, we paid 6.162% interest on our total marketable debt or 159% higher than current average interest rates. On August 15th we owe our next interest payment of approximately $30 billion. Imagine if that payment rises 159% higher to $77.7 billion or $932.4 billion annualized. Later this decade, interest rates will not only rise back to normal levels like we had in 2001, but will likely rise to artificially high levels to balance out the damage being created today from artificially low interest rates.

If this bill is approved by Congress and the President on Monday, it will avoid a short-term honest debt default but just about guarantee a default by inflation later this decade. There is about a 1 in 1,000 chance that future Congresses will stick with the spending cuts in this bill, but even if they do, rising interest payments will not only wipe out the $2.4 trillion in spending cuts, but they will add trillions more to future deficits and the national debt. A new Gallup Poll shows that 53% of Americans oppose raising the debt ceiling compared to only 37% who favor an increase. We pray that millions of Americans march to Washington tomorrow in protest of this bill and that millions more call, email, and fax their elected representatives in the morning demanding that they vote no.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us


NIA Releases US Economic and Inflation Update

June 10, 2011

(Editor’s Note: A state that secedes, establishes gold/silver money, and a militia, will very quickly be rescued from this unemployment debacle. And remember…there is NO INFLATION in a hard money economic system. By the way, Texas already has a lower unemployment rate than most of the country.)

The official U.S. unemployment rate rose during the month of May to 9.1%, up from 9% in April, with only 54,000 non-farm jobs being created for the month. The real unemployment rate including short and long-term discouraged workers is now 22.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) used the birth/death model to produce a positive monthly bias during the month of May of 206,000 jobs, up from 175,000 in April, 117,000 in March, and 112,000 in February. Without the birth/death model, 152,000 jobs were lost during the month of May.

By utilizing the birth/death model, the BLS is assuming that during the month of May, the number of new jobs created by start-up businesses were 206,000 greater than the number of jobs lost from companies going out of business. NIA finds this assumption to be absurd and believes it is likely that jobs lost from companies going out of business were actually much higher than jobs created by new start-up firms. It is obvious to us that the BLS is using the birth/death model to manipulate unemployment figures to make the U.S. employment situation seem far less worse than it truly is. There is absolutely no legitimate reason for the birth/death model upward bias to have increased 84% over the past three months.

McDonald’s recently had their own “National Hiring Day” in which they encouraged Americans to apply for new jobs at the company. All together, 1 million Americans applied for 62,000 jobs at McDonald’s and over 900,000 Americans had to be turned down. To us, this is a sign that despite government economic statistics that are bottom bouncing from their lows due to the Federal Reserve printing trillions of dollars out of thin air, the U.S. economy is still in a severe downturn without the possibility of a real recovery. It is NIA’s belief that the Fed needs to allow the U.S. economy to enter into a severe depression where all bad debts can be liquidated and the free market can rebalance the economy from the ground-floor with a solid foundation.

The fact that the BLS needs to resort to deceptive birth/death model manipulative practices to give the appearance of any job creation, proves that the Federal Reserve’s destructive monetary policies of zero percent interest rates and endless money printing are not creating a sustainable reduction in the unemployment rate. Bernanke can claim all he wants that America’s inflation is transitory, but the only thing transitory about our economy is the artificial decline in the official U-3 unemployment rate from its peak in October of 2009 of 10.1%. The real unemployment rate has increased since October of 2009 and NIA believes that the official unemployment rate will likely rise back into double-digit territory in 2012.

From October of 2009 until now, the number of employed Americans has increased by 1.09% while the U.S. population has increased by 1.12%. The only reason the official unemployment rate has declined from 10.1% down to 9.1% is a decline in the labor force participation rate from 65.1% down to 64.2%. Based on what the labor force would be today if the participation rate had stayed the same over the past 20 months and factoring in the increasing population, 2.1 million Americans have completely given up looking for work.

The 1.09% increase in employed Americans over the past 20 months comes at the expense of a $1.30 increase in the price of gas from $2.48 to $3.78 per gallon for a gain of 52% during this time period. Many agricultural commodities have increased over the past 20 months by an even greater percentage than gas. Although prices of all commodities are volatile and have many short-term ups and downs, NIA believes that gas prices are heading to $5 per gallon over the next 12 months and food inflation is going to rapidly accelerate in the months and years ahead.

Prices are now beginning to rapidly rise for U.S. goods outside of the food and energy sectors. 90% of sporting goods manufacturers have seen their input costs rise substantially this year and 41% of them have already announced major price increases for athletic apparel, footwear, and sports equipment. As the 8,000 toy manufacturers in China are forced to raise the wages they pay their employees, Toys R’ Us is now beginning to see major wholesale price increases for their products, which they will have to pass on to U.S. consumers. Hasbo recently raised prices on all of their products by 6% to 7%. Mattel recently imposed an across the board high single digit price increase after reporting a 33% decline in quarterly profits (despite sales surging by 8%) due to skyrocketing raw material costs.

The U.S. is about to be cut off from its two largest foreign lenders China and Japan, which means the Federal Reserve will need to fund all of the U.S. government’s deficit spending through outright money printing. Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. treasuries just reached a new record of $1.532 trillion. Meanwhile, China’s U.S. treasury holdings have fallen five months in a row down to $1.145 trillion. Chinese central bankers are now calling for the country to reduce their foreign exchange reserves, which have increased by $200 billion this year up to over $3 trillion. Japan is currently the third largest holder of U.S. treasuries with treasury holdings of $907.9 billion. Unfortunately, Japan is in desperate need to raise $300 billion to fund their rebuilding efforts and this will likely come from them dumping some of their U.S. treasuries, during a time when the U.S. desperately needs Japan to buy more U.S. treasuries than ever before.

If we look back at previous occurrences of hyperinflation in countries like Bolivia and Brazil, hyperinflation broke out as soon as their central banks were forced to begin monetizing the bulk of their government’s deficit spending, as foreigners stopped lending. China’s inflation crisis is a direct result of the Fed’s quantitative easing and the monetary inflation that we have exported to them in return for their sporting goods, toys, and other products they produce. If China stops buying U.S. treasuries and decides to instead use their foreign currency reserves to accumulate gold that can be used to back their own currency, the Fed will have no other choice but to become the U.S. treasury buyer of last resort. Not only will we see quantitative easing to infinity, but we will see the $1.5 trillion in excess reserves currently parked at the Fed enter into the money supply and increase the money supply by as much as $15 trillion.

Besides gold, one place where the Chinese are investing their money in order to diversify out of U.S. dollars is Real Estate. Housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai rose 28% and 26% last year respectively. With concerns that Chinese Real Estate is becoming a bubble, the Chinese are now buying Real Estate in North America. However, they are avoiding the U.S. Real Estate market because of the civil unrest that will take place in major U.S. cities during hyperinflation due to empty store shelves. The most popular destination for the Chinese in North America is Vancouver, where Real Estate prices are now more expensive than New York City. While New York City Real Estate prices still haven’t finished deflating, Vancouver Real Estate prices are soaring to new record highs due to Chinese buyers, with the average Vancouver home price rising 14% last year. In the Westside section of Vancouver, housing prices are up 77% since 2005.

Canada’s GDP grew by 3.9% in the first quarter of 2011 on an annualized basis, up from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010, 2.5% in the third quarter of 2010, and 2.3% in the second quarter of 2010. Canada’s GDP growth has increased for four straight quarters. U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 declined to 1.8% on an annualized basis, down from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper just announced plans on Friday to attract more foreign capital and diversify trade in an attempt to protect Canada from a collapsing U.S. economy.

The U.S. still has a AAA credit rating even with its 2011 budget deficit projected to reach 43% of government expenditures, exactly the same as Brazil’s budget deficit as a percentage of expenditures right before they experienced hyperinflation. There is a major charade taking place in Washington today where Republicans are calling for spending cuts to take place in order for them to approve an increase in the debt ceiling. NIA predicts that the debt ceiling will be raised no matter what, most likely at the very last minute. We have zero confidence that Washington will implement any kind of meaningful spending cuts. The U.S. government clearly chose inflation over austerity in its attempt to stimulate the economy. It doesn’t make sense for them to reverse course now, because then they will look incompetent for not having chosen austerity to begin with.

The U.S. currently has a budget deficit from Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other mandatory programs alone, without even paying the interest on our national debt. Major entitlement spending cuts are necessary if we are going to have even the slightest hope of balancing the budget and preventing hyperinflation. Unfortunately, most Americans have become dependent on entitlement programs and government transfer payments just to survive. These Americans fail to realize that the reason they are dependent on food stamps and other transfer payments to survive is because of the government’s deficit spending and the Federal Reserve’s massive monetary inflation. Only when the dollar completely collapses and Americans’ unemployment and Social Security checks aren’t worth enough to pay for the gas needed to drive to the bank to cash them, will they understand the need to elect a President like Ron Paul who will mandate a balanced budget and return the country to sound money, but by that time it will be too late. The only way America will survive as an industrialized nation is if we educate as many Americans as possible to the facts and truth about the U.S. economy that the mainstream media ignores, so that as many Americans as possible can prepare for hyperinflation and we have enough resources to rebuild afterward.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us


Party Like It’s 1929

May 11, 2011

Economy Hanging by a Thread

By Mike Whitney

(Editor’s Note: You’d think that governors and state legislators would read the constant flood of information about the American economy and have a mind to avert the tragedy in their own states. But I guess once a leech, always a leech. It doesn’t occur to a leech that he could be anything other than a leech. Leeches are not leaders…they feed off others. They don’t create…they drain. And leeches don’t usually let go of their host voluntarily…right up to and including the host’s death. America is slowly dying from the effect of the government leeches. The American economy will die soon. We can only hope that the leeches will die with it.)

A bleak jobs report sent stocks and commodities tumbling on Wednesday, while new signs of distress gripped the service industries index. An updated report from the ADP showed that private sector hiring slowed more than expected from March to April as companies struggled to meet rising raw material costs and flagging consumer demand. The service industry index (ISM)…which “ranges from utilities and retailing to health care, finance and transportation”…slumped to its lowest level since August signaling widespread deceleration and a progressive deterioration in the fundamentals. The turnaround has forced economists to rethink their projections for 2nd Quarter GDP and to watch more vigilantly for signs of contraction. This is from the New York Times:

“The economy lost steam in the first quarter. Growth in personal consumption — the single largest component of the economy — slowed markedly. Business-related construction cratered and residential construction fell. Exports stumbled. The only unambiguous plus was continued business investment in equipment and software, which is necessary but not sufficient for overall growth.

In all, economic growth slowed from an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011….

When lauding the economy, Mr. Bernanke and many other economists and politicians point out, correctly, that the unemployment rate has declined from a recession high of 10.1 percent in late 2009 to 8.8 percent now. That would be encouraging news if it indicated robust hiring for good jobs. It does not.

Over the last year, the number of new hires has been outstripped by the masses who have either given up looking for work or who have not undertaken a consistent job search, say, after graduating from high school or college. Those missing millions are not counted in the official jobless rate; if they were, unemployment today would be 9.8 percent. The rate would be 15.7 percent if it included those who took part-time jobs in lieu of full-time ones.” (“The Economy Slows” New York Times)

So, even the New York Times agrees that unemployment would be nearly 16 percent if the figures were correctly calculated. Those are Depression numbers. 14 million people are out of work and record numbers of people are on food stamps (44 million).

Wednesday’s down-market sent commodities plunging as signs of emerging deflation pushed investors into Treasuries. Gold and silver fell sharply. Troubles in Japan, China and the eurozone have intensified fears of a global slowdown and perhaps another bout of recession. The dollar strengthened for the third straight session, in spite of the Fed’s zero rates and $600 billion bond buying program. Trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus have jolted stocks back to life, but debt-deflation dynamics in the broader economy are as strong as ever. Unemployment remains stubbornly high, consumer retrenchment has reduced discretionary spending, and housing continues its inexorable nosedive. The stock market continues to inch higher buoyed by central bank liquidity and margin debt, but investors are increasingly skittish and searching for direction.

The soaring price of gas has shifted consumer spending from retail to energy consumption, the opposite of what the Fed had intended. This from Early Warning:

“I doubt energy prices can go a whole lot higher without triggering another recession, so it depends on whether the world can scrape up a few more mbd of oil to keep growth going without prices rising too much more. We will be watching oil production statistics closely…

…We are in an era where the availability of natural resources is not sufficient to support the wealth levels that the developed world has grown accustomed to, along with the speed of growth with which the developing world is trying to approach those same levels….. the global economy keeps trying to grow in a way that is inconsistent with the resource constraints, and then some part of the system tears and gives way….

I would argue that this data is at least consistent with the narrative that, in the post 1973 era, energy is consistently in somewhat problematic supply, and you can think of many of the recessions as showing a pattern in which energy prices are rising as the world overshoots what can currently be supplied, or what can currently be supplied drops as a result of geopolitical events, and energy prices rise until some pre-existing weakness in the global economic fabric tears in the course of a recession, and prices fall back again….” (“Energy prices and recessions”, Early Warning)

Welcome to Peak Oil; the era of resource scarcity has begun. Today’s troubles will to be a recurrent theme in the years ahead as the economy goes from boom to bust and previous levels of growth become more short-lived and unsustainable. Naturally, our leaders have settled on a strategy for addressing the impending energy shortages; endless war disguised as humanitarian intervention. This is the type of shortsightedness that passes as policy.

The main economic indicators are still turned up, but just barely. The economy is hanging by a thread. Loan demand is weak, wages are flat, and markets are on a knife-edge. Here’s a clip from The Big Picture:

“…the real problem is loan demand (confirmed while speaking to bank organizations in half a dozen states over the past year). Loans have to be repaid, meaning that the money must be used to finance the acquisition of employees or equipment that will “pay back” the loan. Common sense. But record numbers of owners (as high as 28%) have reported that “weak sales” is their top business problem while only 4% reported “financing” as a top problem….. Ninety-three percent reported all their credit needs met in March, including 53 percent who said they were not even interested in a loan. No customers means no need for a loan to finance hiring, inventory purchases or expansion (only survival – not a good bank loan!).

But they don’t get it in Washington D.C. And not understanding the problem produces bad policy, and there has been plenty of that. If lending is picking up, it is because customers are showing up and there is a reason to invest and hire. The reverse doesn’t work – you can’t force feed the credit to owners and have more customers suddenly show up ….That’s “pushing on a string”. Just ask the banks.” (“Loan Demand, Not Credit, Is the Problem”, The Big Picture)

There’s no demand for credit because consumers are in the red and need to balance their accounts. (“93 percent reported all their credit needs met in March.”) It’s pointless to focus on getting the banks to lend, when people are broke and don’t want to borrow regardless of rates. Just like its pointless to dump monetary stimulus into the stock market if it pushes up food and energy prices (headline inflation) reducing consumers ability to spend on other things. This isn’t hard to figure out; it’s Econ 101. So, why is the policy upside-down?

That said, the stock market should continue to trend upward for another couple months until the Fed’s bond buying program ends and investors realize that the real economy is stuck in the ditch. But, for now, it’s “Party like it’s 1929″. Bernanke’s punch bowl is overflowing and there’s still plenty of time to make money. The hangover comes later.

Mike Whitney lives in Washington state and can be reached at: fergiewhitney+at+msn.com


The Truth About Silver And Inflation

April 19, 2011

Courtesy National Inflation Association

Silver futures surged today to a new 31-year high of $42.80 per ounce. Silver is up 146% since NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade on December 11th, 2009, at $17.40 per ounce. All we need is for silver to rise by another 15.5% and silver will reach its all time high set in 1980 of $49.45 per ounce.

Keep in mind, silver’s high of $49.45 per ounce in 1980 would equal about $140 per ounce in today’s dollars adjusted to the consumer price index and about $400 per ounce in today’s dollars adjusted to the real rate of price inflation. Despite silver’s huge gains in recent months, we have yet to see silver rise by $2 or more in a single day. When we start to see a true “silver mania” with investors around the world rushing out of their U.S. dollars and panic buying silver, we expect to see silver gain by $5 to $10 in a single day on more than one occasion.

Back in February of last year when silver dipped to below $15 per ounce, we sent out an alert saying, “NIA believes this is a once in a lifetime entry point for those wishing to go long silver at a bargain basement price”. NIA suggested silver call options in February of last year that ended up gaining over 1,000%. NIA’s latest silver stock suggestion is currently up 175% from our profile price.

In NIA’s top 10 predictions for 2010, we predicted a major decline in the gold/silver ratio, which was 64 at the time. The gold/silver ratio declined in 2010 down to 46, and in our top 10 predictions for 2011, we predicted another major decline in the gold/silver ratio and projected for it to decline this year to 38. NIA has been the most bullish organization in the world on silver, yet recent gains in the price of silver have surpassed even our short-term expectations. The gold/silver ratio is now down to 35 and we believe it will decline to at least 16 this decade, and possibly as low as 10.

The artificially high gold/silver ratio of the past century will be looked back at as an anomaly caused by the silver price suppression scheme of the Federal Reserve, which was in cahoots with Bear Stearns and now JP Morgan. NIA’s President Gerard Adams exposed this scheme in NIA’s critically acclaimed documentary ‘Meltup’, which has now been viewed by over 1 million people with an overwhelming 96% of its viewers giving it a thumbs up, a world record for an economic documentary. According to Mr. Adams, the Federal Reserve chose to bail out Bear Stearns and not Lehman Brothers, because Bear Stearns was the holder of a massive naked short position in silver that they were on the verge of being forced to cover.

It is not a coincidence that Bear Stearns failed on the very day silver reached its then multi-decade high of $21 per ounce. Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their naked short position, which could have sent silver from $21 per ounce to $50 per ounce overnight. By bailing out Bear Stearns and allowing JP Morgan to acquire Bear Stearns’ assets with the promise to cover any losses derived from them, JP Morgan was able to continue managing the silver short position and orchestrate a manipulative take down in 2008 from $21 per ounce down to $8 per ounce.

Only ten times more silver has been produced in world history than gold and from the years 1000 to 1873, a period of 873 years, the gold/silver ratio remained between 10 and 16. In fact, the Coinage Act of 1834 defined a gold/silver ratio of 16. The gold/silver ratio started to rise after silver was demonetized in 1873. Despite silver being demonetized, we saw the gold/silver ratio return to 16 on three occasions during the past century: in 1919, 1968, and 1980.

It was only ten months ago in June of 2010 that the gold/silver ratio was 70. With the gold/silver ratio now at 35, it means that silver investors have seen their purchasing power double over the past ten months, while those with their savings in U.S. dollars have seen their purchasing power decline by 20%. That’s right, forget about NIA’s silver call option that gained over 1,000% and forget about NIA’s most recent silver stock suggestion that is currently up 175%; the simple act of following NIA’s most basic suggestion of getting rid of your U.S. dollars and buying physical silver means that over the past ten months, your purchasing power has doubled while non-NIA members with U.S. dollars lost 1/5 of their real wealth.

The Federal Reserve can claim all they want that there is no inflation, but as we write this article we are eating Ben & Jerry’s ice cream that we just bought at Quick Chek for $5 a pint. Three years ago, the same pint of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream at Quick Chek cost us $3. Three years ago, one ounce of gold would have bought 295 pints of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and it still buys 295 pints of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream today. Three years ago, one ounce of silver would have bought 5.7 pints of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and today it buys 8.5 pints of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream.

Americans with their savings in U.S. dollars can today only afford 3/5ths of the ice cream that they could have bought three years ago, but those with their savings in gold have maintained their purchasing power, and those with their savings in silver have greatly increased their purchasing power. NIA is 100% sure that the gold/silver ratio will decline to at least 16 within the next few years, and that will mean those with silver will once again more than double their purchasing power. Considering that the gold/silver ratio overshot to the upside and was as high as 100 in 1991, we fully expect it to overcorrect to the downside and possibly reach a low of 10 this decade. That would mean a more than tripling of ones purchasing power from the current ratio of 35.

When silver rose to $49.45 per ounce in 1980, the government said that the rise was due to the Hunt brothers “cornering” the silver market. The truth is, silver reached $49.45 in 1980 due to the massive inflation that was created by the U.S. government during the 1970s, and the Hunt brothers were used as a scapegoat. The Hunt brothers were accumulating silver in order to protect themselves from a collapsing U.S. dollar, just like NIA has been encouraging its members to do in a countless number of articles and videos over the past two years.

When the Hunt brothers were accused by the U.S. government of “cornering” the silver market and trying to manipulate silver prices higher, they only owned a concentrated long position of approximately 100 million ounces of silver. JP Morgan today has a concentrated naked short position in silver of approximately 122.5 million ounces, but the U.S. government doesn’t seem to have any problem with it.

The problem with the Hunt brothers’ strategy of accumulating such a large concentrated long position in silver is that after silver prices rose, their position was simply too large for them to ever sell without causing silver prices to crash. With silver reaching $49.45 per ounce in early 1980, the world was about to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar, which would have caused an outbreak of hyperinflation. In a desperate attempt to save the U.S. dollar and prevent hyperinflation, the CBOT raised margin requirements and limited traders’ positions to only 3 million ounces of silver futures. The COMEX also limited traders’ positions to 10 million ounces of silver futures. Not only that, but the COMEX and CBOT only had a total of 120 million ounces of silver in inventory, and the COMEX was likely going to default from futures contract holders requesting physical delivery. The COMEX was forced to go into “liquidation only” mode, ending all silver futures contract buying.

Combined with the Federal Reserve rapidly rising interest rates, silver prices began to plunge and the Hunt brothers were hit with massive margin calls. On one single day in March of 1980 when the Hunt brothers were forced to liquidate a large part of their position, silver lost 1/3 of its value, declining by over $5 to $10.80 per ounce. That represented a total decline of 78% from its high two months earlier.

NIA has been receiving a countless number of emails asking if now is the time to sell silver, and if silver could crash by 78% once again like it did in 1980. The fact is, while the Hunt brothers’ 100 million ounce concentrated silver position was on the long side, JP Morgan’s 122.5 million ounce concentrated silver position is on the short side.

While the Hunt brothers’ long position was impossible to sell without causing silver prices to crash, JP Morgan’s naked short position is impossible to cover without causing silver prices to explode to the upside. Being that the CFTC was so quick in 1980 to support the position limits that were then imposed by the CBOT and COMEX, NIA believes it would only be fair for the CFTC to mandate similar position limits today. This is unlikely to occur because the U.S. government believes JP Morgan’s silver manipulation to be a good thing, since it is giving the phony appearance that the U.S. dollar still has purchasing power. The free market will ultimately win in the end and silver prices will soar through the roof to where they belong based on supply and demand fundamentals.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us


The Nanny State Can’t Last

April 17, 2011

by Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX)

(Editor’s Note: Take note of Dr. Paul’s fourth paragraph. I want you to think about the real ramifications…the “blowback”…of the existence of millions of people in America that rely totally on government benefits for their survival. When the government benefits faucet runs dry, think about what millions of hungry people will do to find food. The sick and elderly won’t loot and pillage, they will starve to death. Those not motivated by lawful behavior will find food by whatever means necessary. That is the future you face, dear readers.)

Last week, Congress and the administration refused to seriously consider the problem of government spending. Despite the fear-mongering, a government shutdown would not have been as bad as claimed.

It is encouraging that some in Washington seem to be insisting on reduced spending, which is definitely a step in the right direction, but only one step. We have miles to go before we can even come close to a solution, and it will involve completely redefining the role of government in our lives and on the world stage. A compromise was struck at the last minute, but until Democrats agree to rein in entitlement spending, and Republicans back off the blank checks to the military industrial complex, it all amounts to political gamesmanship.

Unfortunately, the compromises always seem to be just the opposite. Instead of the left agreeing to cut social spending and the right agreeing to cut military spending, the right agrees to more welfare and the left agrees to more warfare. In spite of all the rhetoric, we will go deeper in debt, the Fed will print more money, and the value of the dollar will continue to plummet. How long will it be before foreigners stop buying our debt, and hyperinflation arrives? Throughout history, empires have always overextended themselves through conquests and wealth transfers leading to eventual collapse, from the Roman Empire to the Soviet Union. We are headed in the same direction and it seems only the chaos of the collapse of the dollar will stop the spending spree. Arguing over funding for Planned Parenthood and NPR, though important, only shows that leadership in Washington either won’t face reality, or don’t understand how serious the problem is.

Of course, an actual government collapse would create serious problems for many people who have come to depend on government payments for healthcare, retirement income, their children’s education, and even food and housing. However, these so-called entitlement programs are unconstitutional to begin with and have engendered a culture of dependence on wealth transfer payments that is out of control. It concerns me greatly that instead of dealing seriously with our situation, so many in Washington would rather allow the chaos that will ensue when all of the dependent people are suddenly cut off. Better to look reality squarely in the face and tell people the difficult truth that government is simply not capable of managing people’s lives from cradle to grave as was foolishly promised. We face trillions in deficits with any of the budgets under consideration. Keeping those promises is, sadly, just not one of our options in the long run. Better to admit the nanny state is coming to an end and we are no longer working on “compromises” but a transition – to a sustainable way of life, one that respects the constitution, the rule of law and property rights.

Dr. Ron Paul is a Republican member of Congress from Texas.


Gerald Celente On Obama’s Budget: “They’re Bankrupting The Country.”

February 19, 2011

Editor’s Note: This follows yesterday’s “Bullet Train to Oblivion” article. Recently, I urged you to begin looking at The Russia Times for insightful analysis.

Here is a good example. Trendwatcher Gerald Celente opines about the Obama budget and its effect on America.

Is there no colony/state in America besides Texas that is seriously considering secession? If not, why not? Ohhh….I remember now. No state, including Texas, is going to get serious about secession until AFTER Washington destroys this country, destroys the money and destroys the economy. I’m sure glad that Jefferson, Washington, Adams and their friends did not wait until King George had bled them dry before they revolted and seceded. But the Founders seceded with far less provocation from the King than Washington assaults us with today. For the life of me, I cannot really understand why even one state will not opt to save itself and its citizens from ruin before it happens.

Secession……ANYONE?

Secession is the Hope For Mankind. Who will be first?

DumpDC. Six Letters That Can Change History.

Gerald Celente is founder and director of The Trends Research Institute, author of Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books), and publisher of The Trends Journal. He has been forecasting trends since 1980, and recently called “The Collapse of ’09.”

© Copyright 2011, Russell D. Longcore. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.


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